Sunday, January 8, 2006

The Opposition

The sad status of Iran's government opposition is more like a very silly joke.

Aside from a few good guys on both left and right spectrum, the rest can be called jokers, clowns and idiots including state related reformers, some Iranian bloggers, MEK/NCRI, all Los Angeles based TV channels, organizations and this front has some delusional people... etc. This list can go on and on and on and it is almost endless. The sadness and sorrow is endless as well.

The Iranian opposition is in no situation to help overthrow the Mullahs of Iran in the short run and the future isn't also bright for these people either. And this is a sad fact.

Look who they, the so-called opposition, are... bunch of lazy, coward escapees who haven't done any thing but to sell off their identities to gain a bit of political ground among the other giants and they have no ethics in dealing with issues concerning their own dirty interests...

They are stuck in the ancient times and their rusty brains haven't been working since then.

Well, it is sad, but true, to see that the dangerous Mullahs of Iran do not have a united front of opponents in or out of the country as well and I assure you that they are so glad to see this happening before their bloody eyes!

A few play the role of Ahmadi Chalabi for Iran. And they do any thing to get the US or Israelis to topple the mullahs for them and they also want others to do their dirty jobs and serve their pockets.

Look at what Chalabi did back in 2002 to get the USA to attack Iraq in order to get him to power! And right now he is under federal investigation in the United States for his suspicious connections with the Iranian regime.

Although I am still a supporter of the US war on Iraq for many many unlimited reasons but the stupidity of the US intelligent agencies to be dragged into the Chalabi's trap (re: wmds) was quite silly or better to say funny.

Do not be shocked, it is happening again!

We've got bunch of old and rusty Iranians trying to scare the hell out of every one to get their filthy interests served by either the US military or Israeli radicals. To them, it doesn't matter who fullfil the task, the results matter!

Well, they think that the rest of the world is either blind or dumb.

It ain't gonna happen and these guys will have to stand responsible for what they are doing right now!

Their insanity should be limited and dealt with right away because tomorrow is too late.

I despise liars as much as I despise the corrupt rulers of today Iran. It is awful!

I will continue on this as it develops! Stay tuned...


Anonymous said...

Why do you think Iranians haven't revolted?

Anonymous said...

fascinating post

Joe Katzman said...

Well, I can't say as I'm hopeful either re: the prospect for internal reform. And in that respect, yes the opposition has failed spectacularly.

Iran isn't what I'd call a pre-revolutionary situation in any sense, there's no evident cohesion to the opposition, and there's zero recognition of the scope of the threat to ordinary Iranians coming down the pipe. Hard to call that anything but dismal.

I have sensed an... immature is the best way to put it... attitude among many of the Iranian democrats for a couple of years now. Blaming others outside of IRan for the situation does no good, and neither does hiding one's head in the sand, and both have been on prominent display.

The lack of anything approaching "we pledge our lives, our fortunes, and our dsacred honour" is by far the most depressing aspect of the present situation to me. In part because it suggests that all of Iran's current pathologies (classic Mideastern ones, at that) would probably continue even if the Mullahs vanished tomorrow.

Having said that - I believe 100% that Iran is absolutely serious about obtaining nuclear weapons. I also believe that if Iran gets them, they will be used at some point. You listen to the folks in charge talk about the 12th imam, and halos appearing around their heads at the UN, and holding conferences and publishing materials explaining a strategy for war againstthe USa and Israel, and the only possible conclusion is that these people are clinically insane.

If I lived in Iran, that plus their very public affection for suicide/murder (the classic fascist suicide and homicide wishes all in one package!), would make me wonder how many millions of Iranians are going to die when the mad mullahs finally put their schemes into motion.

Personally, my bet is over 10 million dead in the Mideast within the decade. And many will be Iranians. And if/when that happens, there will be a lot of failure here to go around.

The clock is ticking.

Anonymous said...

To Joe Katzman :

Here's my take:
I think the reasons for the lack of cohesion and the "immature attitude" you describe regarding Iranian opposition to the regime are many, but several stand out.

First, the internal and external opposition (or lack thereof) must be separated.

Obviously, for those inside Iran, fear tops the list. When you've seen friends and family members and neighbors hauled off to jail, and know they've been beaten, tortured, etc, not to mention those actually killed over the years, fear is certainly a big deterrent. Keep in mind too, that there have been reports of shooting from helicopter gunships used against crowds in the past.
Also, keep in mind that it is illegal for crowds to gather without permission. Even small groups of 5 or 6 people standing on the sidewalk can be questioned and accused of conspiring against the gov't. This law against protest marches and demonstrations is a difference between what was allowed to occur in Ukraine, for instance. If the gov't isn't ordering that protesters be shot, it's a lot easier to get crowds of 10's or even 100's of thousands out into the streets.

The second reason involves understanding what the people suffered during and after the 8 yrs war with Iraq. It was devastating physically, emotionally, psychologically. The hundreds of thousands killed, the hundreds of thousands injured, people were traumatized afterward. The last thing people wanted to do was see more death and violence. And the killing didn't stop. There were the serial killings in 1998, among others. Through all this, there were brave university students willing to take on the mullahs in the late 1990's, and they paid the price.

The third reason, is that over these years, things in Iran have relaxed a bit and opened up more to the west thru the internet and satellite tv and although people are still not free by any stretch of the imagination, they do have more freedoms than in the past. Living a life that you're not happy with but is better than the one that people had 10 ago, is progress of a sort, and I think many young people feel that things are very slowly continuing to change for the better. So why should they feel compelled to risk their lives to participate in demonstrations that may or may not attain more freedoms that they believe will be coming eventually anyway? Also, there's fear of upsetting the status quo and fear of the unknown.
Now, with the new changes that have occured within the regime, these freedoms the people are enjoying may start to disappear. If that happens, it's possible we'll see more people willing to rebel.

I guess fourthly, we can't forget discouragement and hopelessness that anything will get rid of the mullahs. Also, there's the element in Iranian history that gov't changes 'happen to them' thru outside influences; the British, U.S.. So, a kind of victim mentality, perhaps. And there may be a feeling that the U.S. got them into this mess with Khomeini because of Carter, so the U.S. needs to get them out.

As for the Iranians outside Iran, it's hard to come up with many reasons. I suppose some are fearful for their families still in Iran or for themselves perhaps, but for the most part, I think they're comfortable in their lives and lazy and they lack a leader. I think if they had someone to rally behind, more would participate.

This lack of a leader or someone to get behind is an obstacle for the opposition inside Iran, too. Everyone knows what happens to anyone who dares to step up and represent themselves as "the opposition", so there are very few takers for that position.

I'm a believer in setting up a gov't in exile for Iran's present situation. The plan being that the exiled gov't would move in and take over for maybe 1 year, while the country prepared for referendom voting on just what kind of gov't they wanted and who they'd like as their representatives. The question is, who would be at the head of this exiled gov't? You'd want it to be someone that the Iranian people would want to rally behind. I've wondered about Reza Pahlavi, but I don't get the impression that he'd be interested. Maybe the Iranian bloggers need to come up with a list of possible nominees for head of the exiled gov't?
If the Iranians had a popular leader and knew that he/she was standing by waiting for the rebellion and overthrow of the regime to take place, with a temporary gov't ready to fill the void, maybe it would give them the incentive they need to rise up against the regime. I think it would give the U.S. (or whomever) the incentive to help with the overthrow of the regime.

Winston said...

Very Good Response from the Annonymous.

Thank You for backing me up.

Also I owe a THANK YOU to Joe for his comment on my peace. I appreciate it very much!

Joe Katzman said...

Anonymous' comments are excellent, and largely fit with what I believe to be true. And in a normal situation, I'd be a short term pessimist with long-term hopeful outlook.

Alas, Iran is not a normal situation.

You've got a megalomaniac nut in charge talking about the time of the 12th Imam being upon us, halos appearing around his head at the UN, and the destruction of both America and Israel. All of this stuff is simply a more public airing of more widespread thinking inside the Revolutionary Guards and extreme mullahs who run the place.

OK, so they're insane. But we could deal with that.

Oh, and this crew is well on their way to nuclear weapons. And did I mention their ideology that holds suicide/murder as the highest religious virtue, to go along with the divine powers and end-times beliefs?

THAT combination is the problem.

Iranians need to understand that the stakes aren't about a leader, but about their lives. These guys will get what they want. And then they will find a way to use it. They're saying it clear as day... and if they do what they say, how high is the resulting death toll in Iran when retaliation falls?

I believe the West has neither the spine nor the resources to stop them. I believe these people will succeed within a few years, then do what they say. And I believe the resulting death toll will be measured in milions.

In a normal situation, one could rely on time to force change. Time is, however, the one attribute we don't have a whole lot of in the present situation.

I bet the Germans wish they had shot Hitler when they had the chance. I bet the Russians wish the Communists had lost in 1917-22. Didn't happen, and while many others paid with their lives, the level of German and Russian death and destruction was pretty highly ranked in the final tallies. Japanese? Same deal.

And now, the stakes are even higher.

Politics in the modern age has the potential to be something never true before: a game played with the lives of all at stake. Those who dither in such situations court more than just conventional disaster - and human history and the dynamics of war are not by nature kind or merciful.

THAT is why all this stuff makes me sad... and why I totally understand Winston's frustration level even if I don't share all of his beliefs.

Anonymous said...

Joe Katzman:

Alas, you seem very pessimistic. In fact it seems you are resigned to an inevitable doomsday outlook. (and isn't that just what Yazdi & Ahmadinejad and his lunatic followers want?)

"I believe the West has neither the spine nor the resources to stop them. I believe these people will succeed within a few years, then do what they say."

Please stop that kind of talk.
If the Iranians believe that, then what is the point of them being arrested and tortured in order to participate in a demonstration that no one on the outside has the "spine nor the resources" to help them see thru to the desired outcome?

The overthrow of tyrannical and despotic regimes in many other countries have had some sort of help from the outside. What are people who are not permitted to have weapons and not permitted to demonstrate and can't depend on help from anyone on the outside, supposed to do? They need out help.

I believe you are wrong. I believe the U.S. and perhaps a few other countries, have the spine to stop this regime. (at least under Pres. Bush) I believe the President when he says he will not allow this regime to have nuclear weapons.

Now, I sincerely hope that can be accomplished by an overthrow of the regime. Though it does seem when I listen to the young people interviewed in Iran, that they are in some sort of denial. They all seem to feel that the regime can't or won't do anything to them if they break the laws. And they seem to think that time can't go backward, as far as their lifestyles and freedoms are concerned. They didn't live through Khomeini's time and they don't know what it's like to go from freedom to dress and do and live as you please, to being forced to wear hijab and being told that western music, food, books, etc. are forbidden. They think that can't happen to them. (even though it happened to their parents)
That's a problem with having 70% of the country being under the age 30. They have an under 30 mentality. Each generation thinks they know more than the previous and therefore thinks they won't be victims or subjected to repeating history and making the same mistakes as the previous generation.

I don't know what the solution is to getting rid of the regime. I still believe in forming a gov't in exile with a popular, trusted Iranian leader or representative. It could be the catalyst or impetus necessary. But if the Iranian people don't feel as though someone will be there to help them, (and IMO they don't trust right now that there is, and that's a big reason for their fence sitting), then I'm afraid they will resign themselves, too. Or just continue to be in denial until it's too late.

And even if the people don't actively participate in regime change, some action will be taken to prevent the regime from fulfilling their nuclear desires. I have no doubt. I just hope it isn't something that only causes a temporary setback or 2 or 3 year delay in the regime's plans. Because then we may likely be facing a democratic president, and your disastrous scenario would have a much better chance of playing out.

For now, I still remain optimistic. I wish you did, too. The Iranian people need to know that we support them, that people care and will be there to help them, and that we're seeking the best solution to their situation. Not that we've given up.

Anonymous said...

I am afraid that if America does turn out to be "spineless" about dealing with Iranian nukes, that spinelessness would be only temporary and followed by a devastating counter-reaction.

Americans are not really spineless on balance. There are some among us, not at the moment in power thankfully, who are either actually wishing ill for America or else simply frightened of facing hard facts. The majority, though, are simply preoccupied with their private lives and are essentially unaware of the situation.

The problem is that once this mass is shocked into an awareness of the situation, the resulting demand for immediate overpowering retaliation will be irresistable. Had we not lost much of our navy in late 1941 and had we an up-to-date military establishment at that time, Japan would very likely have ceased to exist by the end of 1942. There has been a lot of bluster in the last few days over bin Laden's latest threats. When Atlanta or Hiroshima are mentioned, the fact that it is part of a stupid boast shouldn't blind anyone to the fact that lurking below the otherwise amiable american personality is a dormant ferocity without many historical parallels.