Sunday, February 12, 2006

Should we ignore it?

I am not sure if any one really took the latest report on a possible US and Coalition forces' attack on the Iranian nuclear and military facilities serious or not, but then today there was another assessment published on the consequences of such attack by the Oxford Research Group

Let's take a look at what may happen in case of a military conflict:

1- Lobbing some rusty missiles on Israel or American forces in the neighboring countries by Iranians?

2- Mullahs will be Heating up the insurgency in Afghanistan & Iraq?

3- Regime will Attack Israel through its proxies such as HAMAS, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah?

4- Going to the UN and cry before the toothless UN Security Council?

5- Regime may be facing an uprising inside of Iran if the Iranian people feel the attack might put an end to the mullahs' reign once and forever

6- Iran may try to close the strait of Hormuz and oil prices will hike definitely but in that case, they will have trouble selling the only thing that keep the regime alive.

Certainly the United States is also worried about the Mullahs' possible retaliation. Although I have some well founded doubts (through extensive debates with some military analysts) about the regime's willingness to retaliate. As in this case, a retaliation will put them in a crisis that will probably end their rule over Iran. Not responding to attacks will also prove their utter weakness in the eyes of the Iranian people, in which case the people may also rise up to finish the job.

That is going to be like an awkward position for the Iranian ayatollahs who want war, chaos and crisis to prolong their dictatorship but on other hand they may not be willing to go to war since they are aware that their fate will be just like Taliban, Saddam or Milosevic. Therefore all they would do, in my humble opinion, is to cry before the useless United Nations.

Let me make it simple:

The downfall for the clerical establishment is in sight, whether they go to war or not. If the world community mounts the pressure on them and empower the Iranian people at home through any reasonable means, the war is unnecessary.

At the same time I know that the Iranian people need not go to war to get rid of the mullahs in the first place. We can do a lot better and we should do more before things get any worse.


ملا حسنی said...


آهو said...

Absolutely right! Nothing good comes out of Mullahs getting more power. Not for Iran and not for the world.

Anonymous said...

The mullahs create crisis after crisis to hold on to power and to divert attention from the real problems Iran faces like, poverty, massive unemployment, drug addiction, corruption and thievary by the high officials, not giving the workers their salaries and so on. In the meantime, Iran spends astronomical amount of money on projects by Russians which remain incomplete and unfinished. Iran basically has become a cash cow for the Russians while our people can't even get paid their salaries.

Rob said...

When a nation is a huge net exporter of oil, yet has to import billions in refined gasoline something is wrong, and it is then complete and utter lunacy for said country to first spend billions on nuclear "power" instead of gasoline refineries.

How does any human with even a partially functioning brain not instantly recognize this?

Anonymous said...

Dream on... Iran will stay Islamic. All these propegada are nothing but BS. They said exactly same things 6 months into revolution, then a year into it, then 3 years later same thing. They even killed 72 members of high ranking Iranian goverment officials, but still failed to change the goverment. Every year, they renew the call of Islamic goverment fall. Wake up, People are behind this goverment, and no amount of money from US could topple this goverment. I have lived in US and Iran both. I love Iran & the Islamic goverment.