- " HH: ...What is the strength of the Iranian regime, Michael Rubin, in your estimate? Can it be toppled easily? Or is that a battle to the death if it’s joined? "
" MR: It can be toppled, not easily by any means. What’s the cement that holds it together? The Revolutionary Guard. We know from a variety of means, both on quantitative and qualitative, that the Iranian regime only has about only 20% of the Iranian population really support the idea of theocracy. That doesn’t mean that 80% of the others are revolutionaries by any means. Most of them are quite apathetic. However, the Revolutionary Guard, hand-appointed by the supreme leader, has the arms, and they’re willing to enforce the revolutionary precepts. What people often forget when they’re hoping for some muddle through reform, is that it doesn’t matter what 80% of the people think, because in Iran, sovereignty derives not from the people, but from Ayatollah Khamenei’s conception of God, and therefore, he doesn’t care what the people think, and he has the Revolutionary Guard in place to make sure that they don’t get out of line. "
5 comments:
"I wish they would let Michael Rubin run America's policy on Iran."
I'll second that!
Thank you for posting this. He is the only one who knows the nature of the regime inside and out.
Anyone paying attention to Iran understands the regime inside and out.
Unless understanding a theocracy requires an understanding of the religion upon which it is based. Then, many people (including myself) certainly understand it less than completely.
Patrick,
Anyone paying attention to Iran understands the regime inside and out.
And what is your understanding of the regime? I've been paying close attention since I was a teenager, in 1979. I don't understand the regime. I only understand that the regime needs to be destroyed, and the criminals in it need to be killed or put on trail for what they have done.
They (the regime) should not be "talked to" any more than Al Qaida should be "talked to" - the IRI is treacherous and fundamentally dishonest, and there can be no good faith dialog with people who don't act in good faith. The IRI means the US harm, and that will be the objective of any discussions US has with the regime - for them to do us harm.
We can talk to them plenty, once we have them in handcuffs, eh? No need to rush.
Unless understanding a theocracy requires an understanding of the religion upon which it is based.
This isn't just a theocracy we are talking about. This is a terrorist and criminal government. And it's a theocracy.
Then, many people (including myself) certainly understand it less than completely.
I'm still wondering what there is to understand. If somebody shot your dog and raped your wife, would you feel a need to understand his motivations or his behavior?
Well, I guess for people who believe there is a peaceful solution to the problem of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I guess my example isn't suitable.
But I'm not one of those. The regime has to go, one way or another. Instead of making amends for past transgressions, the IRI just keeps escaltaing it's aggressions against the rest of the world. It's intolerable, and it's been allowed to get away with it for far too long. 28 years too long, actually.
Patrick -
You may think that just "paying attention to Iran" is enough to "understand the regime inside and out", but very few people in Washington and elsewhere around the world "understand".
That's why we're still in this mess dealing with this regime, allowing them to kill Americans and others, to this day.
And yes, some understanding of their religion and beliefs is helpful.
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