There are some weird things going on in Iran these days. And all these weird stuff are like the largest anti-riot drills in Tehran, testing new missiles and the Persian language Radio Farda reports that the Iranian regime has extended a national pardon for all military service deserters. This pardon acts like a recruiting drive for the regime armed forces since the military service in Iran is compulsory and desertion is a huge issue among the youth. Therefore all these stories make me believe that the regime is probably more nervous than ever. Are they expecting something? I don't have a clue but this doesn't sound normal to me. The above mentioned drill is so large and unprecedented for decades that even pro-Mullahs BBC Persian is reporting it as well. Also BBC Persian says that the clerical regime has set up a special security committee for the city of Tehran alone. More than 30,000 police force will take part in the exercise. BBC reports that the security officials are reviewing the ways to bring more troops to Tehran from other provinces in case of an emergency; these drills and exercises will last for more than a week according to my knowledge and what I have read so far. Photos
My own analysis is this appears to be preparation for a possible foreign attack. The regime may believe that they are vulnerable now to attack while President Bush is still in office - though more likely from Israel. Sen. Obama will sell Israel any day. The Mullahs fear that the Iranian people might rise up if the country is attacked, and riot in Tehran and try to overthrow the gov't.
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The people of Iran will certainly not rise up in revolution if their country is attacked. Just as Americans rallied around President Bush, an attack on Iran today cause the Iranian people to rally around Ahmadinejad. You really think that Obama will sell Israel? That's why Joe Biden is one of the Senate's most ardent supporters of Israel, that why Anthony Lake may become head of the CIA, and why Dennis Ross or Jeff Steinberg have been the most mentioned names for National Security Adviser (all Jewish and all proven supporters of Israel)...
"The people of Iran will certainly not rise up in revolution if their country is attacked."
And just what are you basing this assertion on? There are numerous examples throughout history of locals greeting their liberators with great joy.
Remember the aftermath of Gulf War I when Iraqis rose up in an attempt to topple Saddam Hussein? Maybe you were still in diapers. The West abandoned them in their time of need on that occasion. Once bitten, twice shy.
And besides that, much (not all) but much of the so called resistance to the American invasion of Iraq was driven by neighbouring dictatorships, be they secular, theocratic or monarchies, not to mention the Ba'athists whose noses were out of joint from having lost their privileged position.
I'm not saying that Iran would or wouldn't be grateful. But if a people cannot overthrow a despotic regime that is poised to wreck havoc on the civilized world, that is no reason for the civilized world to roll over and play dead. We will defend ourselves and our allies. If the locals don't like it, too bad. There is no reason we should sacrifice our lives and our way of life just because they are too weak or too splintered to prevent their dictators from creating the conditions that bring on -- what's that popular phrase -- oh yeah, blowback.
Comparing Bush and the American democracy to the Ayatollahs and their theocracy is as massive misconstrual of reality. And besides, the decision to remove Saddam Hussein by force was made by Congress and formalized by the passage of the Iraq Liberation Act in 1998, which was signed into law by Bill Clinton.
Perhaps they see the war in Iraq being won and Iraq becoming a free, prosperous society. They also see thousands of their citizens visiting Karbala and Najaf every year. Maybe they remember this story and are getting even more scared now.
In preparation for attack, you build up defenses, you don't train riot police. They're girding for civil unrest. With the price of oil plummeting, their fat subsidies are going to dry up and the people are not going to be happy.
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