Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Will Iran be disintegrated?

Will Iran be disintegrated?

Or is there any will to help disintegrate Iran into smaller countries?

It has been my concern since summer of 2003. As the US policies in the mideast region have been shaped over the containment of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in the past 27 years and its impact on Jihadists' movements around the region, and it might also be fair to say that a disintegrated Iran is much easier to deal with than a country which has the longest borders with Iraq and the Persian Gulf oil rich area.

That being said, I have no doubt that Freedom & Democracy will, soon, sweep the dictators away in the mideast sooner than later but what amazes me is the impact of a unique country like Iran on the regional issues.

As we know, Iran is the only nation in that part of the world which is able to influence its neighbors and meddle in their affairs effectively and the government of Iran (Before & After the Revolution of 1979) have proven this fact.

The late Shah's government of Iran has also proven this by sending troops to Oman's Dhofar, Pakistan and its support for the Kurds, in the early 1970s, in their fight against the government of Iraq.

And the Islamic regime of Tehran has proven this by sending terror agents around the globe to neutralize its opponents, as well, and most recently it is trying to shape the region through its proxies in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon.

Like I said, a disintegrated Iran won't be affecting the region like it is today. I am not in favor of an ill conspiracy theory but I am hearing this a lot in the Iranian media and among Iranian nationals, needless to say that there is a growing unrest among Kurds in the west parts of the country and south western Khuzestan province and also among Azerbaijanis in NW.

Moreover, Iran had been experiencing some kinds of internal conflicts since 1940s. There have been series of unrest right after any big domestic changes.

Once Soviet troops left Iran, the Autonomous government of Azerbaijan led by Pishevari announced "independence" which crushed by the Imperial Iranian Army in 1946-47 (However, this is important to mention that they had support from Moscow and Soviet Union Leader, Joseph Stalin, was actively backing them up and this factor doesn't exist any more).

Right after the revolution, in 1979, Kurds and other minorities in Iran began fighing the central government in order to gain some sort of independence.

Turkemens in NE of Iran have the same story as well. Baluchis share the same story too! and so does Arabs of SW of Iran.

Every time, the central government was destabilized one could see some sort of unrest among tribes and ethnic groups around the country! Is next time different?

I am not also saying that Kurds, Arabs or any other minorities should be deprived of their rights such as ability to teach their language at schools beside the Persian language, or having some kind of Regional (I am not in favor of Federalism) Justice System... But my point is that who might be benefitted if Iran is disintegrated or weakened?

It might sound a bit terrifying to think about!

Regarding Kurds, I'd say they have sided with every one who support them and their cause of independence.

Once they were buddies of Soviets and then they have been buddies of the late Shah of Iran and now they are one of the strongest allies of the Americans. However, I would say that if they can become independent inside Iraq and Iran, then Turkey and Syria will be in trouble since they have a large population of unhappy Kurds. So given the fact that Turkey doesn't let her Kurds go away, there is little chance left for them in Iran and Syria to become independent as well.

Turkish gov't has been fighting all kinds of Kurdish dissident groups for years! That is what every one knows.

Right now, Iraqi Kurds have their own form of independence and security arrangements within their own region.

So what will happen to Iranian & Syrian Kurds in case of regime change in these countries?

And there are, now, groups like British Ahwazi group which advocates total independence in the Khuzestan province of Iran! By looking at their web site it is obvious that they seek their own state! They claim their cause is as the same as Palestinians!

Or this one sounds very strange and pathetic and it makes me wonder a lot more now.

These all add up to my fear of a possible threat to the territorial integrity of Iran after the Mullahs regime collapse.

I am also aware that the Mullahs have been using this threat of "Possible Disintegration" as a stick over the heads of Iranians to scare them and prevent any civil unrest.

There is no visible hatred among the people of Iran as far as I know but the question remains that who might be benefitted from this possible disintegration?!?


Amir said...

Look there’s no doubt that many Iranian minority groups have suffered from years of oppression and mistrust and that has created a lot of resentment.

But what can we do? Should we keep the mistrust machine going or should we start treating them as equals?

I don’t understand how horrible it could get if we allow Kurdish language to be taught in Kurdistan along side Farsi/Persian or Kurdistan being run by Kurdish Politicians (let them get blamed for any short comings!) or allowing local (state) courts to mediate small issues between Kurds and leaving Security and major crimes to Federal/National courts and Federal/National security forces.

This type of governance will create a sense of competition between different states/provinces in Iran and it will kill all sorts of unrest and unhappiness in a second!

Imagine if there was some sort of Labor dispute in a Kurdish city, then an angry mob started burning banks and local businesses, what’s going to happen? The democratically elected Kurdish mayor of that city will order his Kurdish police chief to send it’s police to stop the rioters and that would be the end of that story! Now can you tell me if something similar happens during this regime and system, what happens? Well we know what happens we’ve seen it time and time again! It becomes a national security issue and Kurds get angrier and angrier and feel less Iranian and more Kurdish! But it doesn’t have to!

Anonymous said...

Winston & Amir :

The one thing that the different ethnic provinces have in common, is a dislike for the regime. And it's certainly a possibility that the U.S. has thought about using the different ethnic provinces to help fight against the regime and bring it down. This would result in negotiations for the cooperation of the so-called leaders of those ethnic areas and some sort of promise or agreement of what would happen after the demise of the regime.

I really don't think the U.S. has any personal interest in making Iran smaller. As long as it had a government that the U.S. didn't have to fear or worry about, and it wasn't going to cause problems for others in the middle east, who cares how big the country is.?

Now, it's possible that an agreement could be made with the provinces to help them gain independence from Iran after the fall of the regime, but that wouldn't be in the best interest of those provinces. It would be much better for them economically and in every way, to stay a part of a larger, stronger, democratic Iran. So, it's possible that negotiations for their cooperation in helping to bring down the regime, could be made to help them after the fall of the regime, by convincing them that there would be a democratic-type gov't that would recognize their rights & needs and allow them some autonomy and governing in their regions. If they didn't feel oppressed and discriminated against, they'd have no reason to split off from Iran.

Anonymous said...

US wanna kill all iran. we no allow it.

Anonymous said...

But my point is that who might be benefitted if Iran is disintegrated or weakened?

This is pure cheap conspiracy theory. Of course it will affect other people and other nations. Some good, some bad.

But you know who will really benefit from a Federal system? It will be the Iranian people, and its ethnicities.

The only way to have democracy is through a federal system which allows democracy to be implemented in a managable fashion. Think about it.

Anonymous said...

These all add up to my fear of a possible threat to the territorial integrity of Iran after the Mullahs regime collapse.

Grow up. There is othing SACRED about territorial integrity. It is the RIGHT of each nation, each ethnicity, to have self-determination, and it is NONE of your business.

You use the code words "territorial integrity" in the same way that the friggin mollas use the words "Koran" and "Imam Zaman". Get a life and join the 21st century and stop ethnic (Persian or Islamic) chauvinism. Get over your phobia of free people and free nations.

And stop the cheap conspiracy theories "who will benefit" and that sort of MATARSAK that has been wielded by SHAH and KHOMEINI and now IRGC, and SAVAK and MOIS. Get a life.

Anonymous said...

Winston & Amir - you imbeciles.

SELF-DETERMINATION is a right of man. It is even in the UN Universal Declaration of Rights.

Get over your cheap backward and reactionary phobias about free countries living in peace side by side and forming a free union.

If you cant get the Kurds and Arabs and Azaris and Turkomans and Baluchis to buy into your vision, you have NO RIGHT TO IMPOSE a central dictatorship on them.

Get an education. The right to have your own democratic government is YOUR RIGHT and cannot be denied by some central assholic regime.

Of course, none of these Iranian ethnicities have the right to impose a dictatorship on themselves. In other words only DEMOCRATIC SELF-DETERMINATION is a right. DESPOTIC SELF-DETERMINATION is NOT a right.

I am sure you agree.

Adrian said...

I'm not sure it would benefit many, if Iran is being disintegrated. You'd just end up with many small nations, not really able to provide those fascillities the people needs.

Another thing that strikes my mind, is if the minorities are really unhappy abut being part of Iran as nation, or if it's not more becasue the lack of democratic rights that creates the tensions.
In other words, if Iran became democratic and got a strong constitution that protect minorities and gives them certain rights, I could imagine the tensions would dissapear.
Look at Switzerland, a country with 4 languages and indenpendent cantons with each their special set of laws.
It is possible to have a country with lots of diversity, and it's the diversity that makes strong if used the right way.
No matter what, it's the people living in each region that is to decide wether being independent or part of a bigger state. After all, it's about their lives...and no others.

Amir said...

Replying to the post that starts with: "Winston & Amir - you imbeciles…"

You’re such a moron buddy, if you hadn’t used “Anonymous” I could point you out, but you know who you are! You didn’t even read what I said.

It looks like you have ZERO knowledge of Iran.

Texans are proud of being Texans and keep waving that stupid flag wherever they go but you can hardly find two idiots who’d want to separate Texas from the Union! And if there are then I’m sure the Daily Show is in line to do an interview with those two idiots. The same goes for these so called separatists! In fact I can say that the red necks in Texas are probably the most patriotic Americans you can find anywhere! These so called ethnic groups, places like Kurdistan and Khuzestan have had the most volunteer soldiers (and hence, unfortunately the most casualties) during the Iran-Iraq war. These guys vote more than people do in Tehran during national elections! So believe me they are as Iranian as it gets!

There are only a handful of people, who want their provinces separated from Iran and the number of such people is so little it’s not worth talking about! Look, the majority of Iranians are considered 2nd class citizens by their own government, now if you’re a Sunni or a Kurd or an Arab Iranian, then you’re fucked cause you’re not even 2nd class, you’re probably 3rd class or something, but the fact is we all are looking for ways to change this regime and created democracy and equality for all our citizens, the only thing is whether we should have a federal system or not and I’m all for that.

The only reason you hear so much about separatists these days is because websites like “Baztab” and “Entekhab” which are the media hand of the Regime’s Revolutionary Guards are providing a voice for these few individuals and the reason they are doing it, is because they want to create a fear in the Iranian populous that any unrest will result in the disintegration of Iran! And we all know it is B.S. and fear tactics!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Winston said...

hehehe... imbeciles!

I like it ;-)

Btw, Amir... you put it very well!

Anonymous said...

Amir - you did not read what I said.

The issue is not separation. None of Iranian's ethnicities want to be truely separated. This is a red herring, for you to avoid the issue, trying hard with irrelevent Texas examples, etc.

Your point that the regime is instilling fear among Iranians by waving the "separation" bogeyman is valid however. This reflects on the misplaced sense of nationalism among ordinary Iranians.

The issue is that these ethnicities find a Federal structure to be the only way that they can achieve their democratic aspirations. And they have good reason to believe so.

Democratic self-determination is their right. Whether you like it or not, or believe in fedralism or not, is totally irrelevent. Any nationality has a right to democratic self-determination and for others living outside their boundaries - well frankly, it is not their business.

The way I see it is that these ethnicities have given up on the idea of a democratic Iran lead from Tehran. It is not happening for 27 years (and neither the 60 years before that), and when the mollas are kicked out, it will be other totalitarian groups such as Mojs and the Shahis and the Sumkas and the right-wingers and the left-wingers who will then try to grab power with the violence and try to institute their brand of dictatorship.

For example this website has no idea what it wants after regime change. Look at its front page. It is pathetic. Do you want a constitution? Do you want a parliamentarian democracy? Do you want a monarchy? Nooooo - lets hide our sympathies, lest we reveal too many of our cards. Until the day that Iranian opposition is unwilling to talk about what it wants, and come together and agree on a roadmap - nothing is going to happen in Iran. Iranians are not idiots to put themselves in danger so that Mujs and Shahis and and Nationalists etc. to come and inherit the rule and start another 27 years of repression.

All you guys are doing is yelling "down with molla". But you are silent about the future. You dont have a program. You have no vision. You have no roadmap. Has it ever occured to you that maybe Iranians cannot trust you when you are so silent?

How are you going to stop all hell breaking loose when the mollas are overthrown? Who is going to inherit power? In what way and why? Who sets up the transition government? Who controls the military? The IRGC? What happens to the Basijis and the IRGC with all their guns. How do you arrive at a constitution? How do you arrive at the form of government? Who controls the referendum and elections?

Face the fact Amir. You dont have answers. You are long on "death to mollas" and "they are beating us up", and short on "well how do we arrive at freedom and democracy AFTER they are booted".

And this is the sorry state of the vision-less opposition today.

Under these circumstances, it is no wonder that our nationalities wish to have political autonomy. They dont trust people like you. They know Iran is morally and political in coma, and they need to find their own ways. Any freedom loving Iranian will sympathize with their aspiration.


Anonymous said...

I am Ahwazi Arab and proud of being Ahwazi Arab. I find problem is the exclusion in Iran and in opposition. We have no place. We are not welcomed in Iran. I do not think my nation should or can get independence. We do not have any option but to campaign for federalism. Everyone want a united Iran. Everyone want a democratic Iran. I want an Iran for me not just Persians and Azeri-Turks. Ahwazi Arabs want:
- end to persecution
-social justice
-redistribute oil resource
-end to land confiscation
- democracy
-devolution powers
- no mullahs
- no more violence
- equality
-respect for our language and culture

Why are you afraid of this? This is not an end to Iran but beginning. We want peace, harmony, justice and democracy.

Anonymous said...

I add this: federation is healthy. See United States, Canada, Germany, India, European Union. Federation ends conflict: Sudan is now federation, perhaps Iraq also. Why do you fear federalism?

Winston said...

i m not afraid of what you said, dude!
I just dont think Federalism is good for Iran since it is of a more communist backed idea for Iran for too long, but I am all in favor of some sort of regional run form of a country in terms of economy and justice system!
That is it!

Winston said...

btw, who else is welcome in IRAN ? all Iranians are 3rd grade citizens, not just you or others..

Anonymous said...

Winston - you did not get the point.

The issue is not how come you dont have a plan. The issue is how come no Iranians in opposition have a program? Why are they so afraid of talking about the future of Iran, post-molla?

That is the reason there is no unity. Unity simply about "death to molla" is not going to work.

And that is the reason why Iranians dont revolt. Until the day that the Iranian opposition have no interest in the future of Iran, to its constitution, to its form of state, to its human rights, etc. there will be no regime change.

So you go on and keep on yelling, from the bottom of your throat: "death to molla". It is not going to work and people are fed up with these hollow rhetorics.

Also Winston you say "federalism is bad because communists liked it". Can't you deal with something without labelling it? IF you can't argue what is wrong with federalism in a reasonable manner, then you don't have a case. Like saying - Tehran subway system is bad, because mollas like it.


Anonymous said...

behnam, are you the same idiot using coarse language on web page!?

What an idiot you are...