Will Iran be disintegrated?
Or is there any will to help disintegrate Iran into smaller countries?
It has been my concern since summer of 2003. As the US policies in the mideast region have been shaped over the containment of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in the past 27 years and its impact on Jihadists' movements around the region, and it might also be fair to say that a disintegrated Iran is much easier to deal with than a country which has the longest borders with Iraq and the Persian Gulf oil rich area.
That being said, I have no doubt that Freedom & Democracy will, soon, sweep the dictators away in the mideast sooner than later but what amazes me is the impact of a unique country like Iran on the regional issues.
As we know, Iran is the only nation in that part of the world which is able to influence its neighbors and meddle in their affairs effectively and the government of Iran (Before & After the Revolution of 1979) have proven this fact.
The late Shah's government of Iran has also proven this by sending troops to Oman's Dhofar, Pakistan and its support for the Kurds, in the early 1970s, in their fight against the government of Iraq.
And the Islamic regime of Tehran has proven this by sending terror agents around the globe to neutralize its opponents, as well, and most recently it is trying to shape the region through its proxies in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon.
Like I said, a disintegrated Iran won't be affecting the region like it is today. I am not in favor of an ill conspiracy theory but I am hearing this a lot in the Iranian media and among Iranian nationals, needless to say that there is a growing unrest among Kurds in the west parts of the country and south western Khuzestan province and also among Azerbaijanis in NW.
Moreover, Iran had been experiencing some kinds of internal conflicts since 1940s. There have been series of unrest right after any big domestic changes.
Once Soviet troops left Iran, the Autonomous government of Azerbaijan led by Pishevari announced "independence" which crushed by the Imperial Iranian Army in 1946-47 (However, this is important to mention that they had support from Moscow and Soviet Union Leader, Joseph Stalin, was actively backing them up and this factor doesn't exist any more).
Right after the revolution, in 1979, Kurds and other minorities in Iran began fighing the central government in order to gain some sort of independence.
Turkemens in NE of Iran have the same story as well. Baluchis share the same story too! and so does Arabs of SW of Iran.
Every time, the central government was destabilized one could see some sort of unrest among tribes and ethnic groups around the country! Is next time different?
I am not also saying that Kurds, Arabs or any other minorities should be deprived of their rights such as ability to teach their language at schools beside the Persian language, or having some kind of Regional (I am not in favor of Federalism) Justice System... But my point is that who might be benefitted if Iran is disintegrated or weakened?
It might sound a bit terrifying to think about!
Regarding Kurds, I'd say they have sided with every one who support them and their cause of independence.
Once they were buddies of Soviets and then they have been buddies of the late Shah of Iran and now they are one of the strongest allies of the Americans. However, I would say that if they can become independent inside Iraq and Iran, then Turkey and Syria will be in trouble since they have a large population of unhappy Kurds. So given the fact that Turkey doesn't let her Kurds go away, there is little chance left for them in Iran and Syria to become independent as well.
Turkish gov't has been fighting all kinds of Kurdish dissident groups for years! That is what every one knows.
Right now, Iraqi Kurds have their own form of independence and security arrangements within their own region.
So what will happen to Iranian & Syrian Kurds in case of regime change in these countries?
And there are, now, groups like British Ahwazi group which advocates total independence in the Khuzestan province of Iran! By looking at their web site it is obvious that they seek their own state! They claim their cause is as the same as Palestinians!
Or this one sounds very strange and pathetic and it makes me wonder a lot more now.
These all add up to my fear of a possible threat to the territorial integrity of Iran after the Mullahs regime collapse.
I am also aware that the Mullahs have been using this threat of "Possible Disintegration" as a stick over the heads of Iranians to scare them and prevent any civil unrest.
There is no visible hatred among the people of Iran as far as I know but the question remains that who might be benefitted from this possible disintegration?!?