I do not like Hosni Mubarak very much but I do not trust the Egyptian opposition either. A quick look at the opponents of Mubarak around the world - not to mention Hamas militants - determines the side I want to be on right now and unfortunately, I'd like to be on Mubarak's side. An Egypt ruled by the likes of 'Muslim Brotherhood' thugs and dingbats like Elbaradei can not be in anyone's interests unless you want a permanent state of war between Israel and her neighbors.
At the same time, average Egyptians have reservations about Elbaradei and his minions. It makes you think twice before throwing the towel and declare Mubarak a goner. My prediction is that Mubarak will be able to survive this crisis and he'll succeed in naming a trusted successor and allow for a free election. I hope the Egyptian people understand the lessons of the Iranian revolution and avoid doing to their country what the Iranians did to Iran in 1979. Mubarak is bad, but Sharia laws and Muslim Brotherhood jihadism is worse. I certainly hope they understand the stakes.
7 comments:
Well thought out post.
==Banned LGF'er. :)
What usually happens after a revolution is a provisional regime until that time when societal forces re-align themselves and the most powerful contender emerges. Should El Baradei become President, he will surely be just a transitional figure.
Agreed. Yet I think Mubarak will be able to stabilize the country. Again, I do not like Mubarak but am terrified of an Egypt ruled by Muslim Brotherhood - اخوان المسلمین - and the possibility of war with Israel.
Coptic Christians Worry About Future Without Mubarak
I hope the American people learn what happens when you elect someone as weak and feckless in matters of foreign policy as the twins Barak Øbama and Jimmy Carter.
I share your concerns regarding the Muslim Brotherhood. They have never moved beyond the ideology of their founding and they are a clear and present danger to peace within the Middle East. With the spread of their influence throughout the region, Israel will face a hostility that it has not seen in decades. I also fear that free and open elections will result in the emergence of hardcore Islamic radicals bent on establishing a theocratic government similar to that of Iran and the rule of the Taliban.
Mubarak has two choices, either leave now and potentially create a vacuum for the Islamic Brotherhood or brutally suppress the protests like the Chinese did in Tiananmen Square. The second option will depend on his remaining influence with the Egyptian military. I just don't see a happy ending to this situation and I believe that neither does Mubarak. That is why he sent his family to Britain. Further, we must also worry about Jordon and Syria being subject to similar pressures. The region is already dangerous and further instability may cause it to spiral out of control into a major catastrophe with worldwide implications. Keep your fingers crossed for luck.
It really and truly saddens me that to see real change (for better or for worse) ...the masses have to PHYSICALLY demonstrate that they want it. No amount of twittering, facebooking, rallying, letters, or oral demands every got anyone anywhere. Leaders could cut their losses and just give people what they want. Instead we are left with a situation that is bad for everyone. For the Egyptian people who lose their stability, for Mubarak who loses his dignity and power, for other countries who see a rise in oil price (which realistically matters very much)....and so on and so forth. ....
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