Tuesday, July 7, 2009

July 9th Uprising

Thursday is July 9th. Ten years ago on that day, the regime security forces raided several university campuses in Tehran to crackdown on an uprising against the regime. As many as 17 people died in the unrests and for almost a week the whole country witnessed a surge of unprecedented anti-regime activities. [1], [2]

There may be protests across the country in commemoration of 18 Tir uprising (9th of July). Several locations have been announced for rallies and gatherings. I'll keep you posted as things unfold in Iran. It's important to notice that so many things point to the nervous nature of the regime days before the 10th anniversary. Most notably, regime has shut down the city of Tehran due to pollution but people have interpreted that as an early indication that regime is trying to prevent people from gathering.


Anonymous said...

Don’t treat a friend as enemy only for one mistake and don’t try to befriend the real enemy.

These are Khamenei’s words which have been turned to the headline in the Keyhan News Paper today (the official Ayatollahs news-paper in Iran).

Looking closely at Khameni’s speech now, very much you can see the depth of fear in his mind about an immanent/ real attack by the West.

In fact this is the first time ever the Ayatollahs have really felt the heat and they are genuinely worried about the real and clear danger towards their existence.

Watching how disparately Khameni is trying to unite the regime’s internal fractions now is very informative and projects the actual wellbeing of the entire regime.

At the same time, seeing how skillfully Khameni is trying to trick the West into assumptions that “this is only an internal family matter and he is trying to threaten the West with people-regime unification should the West attacks the regime”.

Khamenei would have never showed so much of pubic presents, addressing the people directly, IF he wasn’t really worried. This is the most vulnerable moment for the regime and they wish no-one else could really see that.

In reality at the first sign of any attack by the West, there will be no unity want-so-ever. The world has seen clearly how people genuinely hate this Islamic regime. The regime doesn’t have the people and this is tested now.

This will leave the actual regime’s body on its own to defend itself against any potential attacks. For sure the actual Iranian Army, Navy and Air-force capabilities are not completely supporter of the regime at all. This is the only reason that the Ayatollahs had to create their own Army, Navy and Air-force capabilities within their Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and creating the Basij paramilitary force too. In a fear that someday the actual Iranian Army, Navy and Air-force may completely refuse to follow the Ayatollahs orders, or even the worst they actual turn right against the regime.

At the first sign of any attack on the regime, the moderate fractions within the regime leading by Hashemi Rafsanjani; either runs away from Iran on a double or they directly turn against their own regime in support of the attacker in addition to expressing huge remorse and ask for forgiveness.

Having the people and the reformists taking no parts in defending the regime now, then it will leave the regime only with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and the Basij. Now this is true, these two forces will try to defend the regime, yet only up to a certain point.

And that point is, when they realize that their own commanders like Mohsen Rezaei and the rest, all are running away with big suitcase filled with US dollars and when their own families also turn against them. This will happened within the first 2 months of any attack if not sooner.

This is a great fearful moment for the Ayatollahs!


Winston said...

I very much agree with what you said. I feel the Israelis might use this mess to attack.

saggezard said...

An elderly lady told me: we should offer Khamenei a large bowl of the youths' blood & ask him if he is till hungry
یک بانوی سالخورده به من گفت که باید به خامنه ای یک کاسه بزرگ از خون جوانان داد و ازاو پرسید آیا اوهنوز گرسنه است